As the clock begins to wind down on Election 2008, every event for John McCain is now a must-win event. With Barack Obama starting to break open a comfortable lead in the polls, it will take either a major gaffe on his part or a terrorist walking into a mall in Los Angeles and detonating some kind of nuclear device (and if the Obama campaign hasn't already gamed that one out and prepared a reaction, they're even more useless than the John Kerry brain trust in 2004) to stall the momentum. That's right: McCain is falling so far behind that he can't even rely on gimmicky stunts or the innate racism of a certain segment of the American electorate to help carry the day. So tonight's debate is, yes, a must-win event. What should you look for?

Temperament: McCain "lost" the last debate in large part because Obama remained serene throughout the proceedings while his rival failed to even look him in the eye and generally seemed angry to be standing on the same stage as some young punk from Chicago. Tonight's fracas is in a "town hall" format, which is touted as being more favorable to McCain because the ability to interact with a crowd makes him seem more like the funny old grandpa who will get down on the rug with you and help you put together your Legos and less like the crotchety old great-uncle who yells about how they did things differently in his day and why don't you damn kids have any respect? Expect a lot of eye contact. Watch the veins in McCain's neck as he tries to restrain himself from lashing out: the tighter they get, the more likely it is that the outburst we've all been hoping for since he won the nomination is about to spring forth.

Topic: There's absolutely no way McCain can win if the debate is entirely about economics, and one of the first things Obama should do is remind him about his comments on the strength of the economic fundamentals, which will surely rile him up a bit. Look for McCain to keep trying to shift the focus to Tony Rezko, Bill Ayers, and the host of other unsavory characters whom Obama might have been seated near at Bacino's Pizza on Wacker. If McCain comes out early with Rev. Wright you can tell it's going to be a long night. Obama should gently attempt to redirect the discussion back to the actual question at hand, with the kind of polite condescension you recognize from your own interaction with erratic elderly people.

Tone: McCain, above all, cannot sound angry. "Where's the outrage, America" didn't work for Bob Dole 12 years ago and it's not going to work now. He needs to very simply suggest that Obama is an untested, inexperienced newcomer who's never done an honest day's work in his life and was probably the guy who bought tickets for the 9/11 hijackers—and also, he's black—but with a kind of gentle, aw shucks, only in America modulation. For Obama's part, a modicum of anger might please the base, but might scare those voters whose reservations about siding with the black guy are outweighed by the fear that they're pretty much going to have to auction off their anal virginity in order to make next month's rent if Republican economic policy continues to hold sway. Calm and steady wins this one.

Use Of The Word Maverick: Incredibly inadvisable, but this will not stop McCain from whipping it out.

Now, let's be clear. There's still plenty of time left in this race. McCain could conceivably win it—particularly if Obama forgets that he's not supposed to let slip with his "Muhahahaha, now you foolish infidels will learn what it's like to live under the swift and merciless justice of Islamic law" line until after Inauguration Day. But McCain's going to have to win ugly—ugly on a level the depths of which his campaign has only just begun to plumb. McCain, a man who once did have a well-deserved reputation for honor, really needs to ask himself if it's worth it. Essentially, the next president's job is to be the guy frowning in the corner as we sign over the deed to the Pacific Northwest to China. At this point, might it not be better just to lose?

Anyway, enjoy the debate! Or Real Housewives of Atlanta, which is what I'm going to be watching.